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[Issue Brief] Solving curtailment issues, starting with data transparency This issue brief aims to clarify the concept of curtailment for non-power system professionals by analyzing the various causes of curtailment in Korea and introducing examples of curtailment policies and data disclosure from other countries. Based on these analyses, we recommend that transparent data disclosure and clear curtailment policies be established as prerequisites for mitigating curtailment and promoting renewable energy. 2024-10-22 / Yunsik Chung
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[Issue Brief] It's time for a paradigm shift: the real typhoon damage starts in the fall In the last decade, typhoons have been the second most destructive type of natural disaster. We need to focus on typhoons, particularly those that occur during the fall, as their intensity is anticipated to rise due to climate change. 2024-10-21 / Kanghyun Song, Minhee Lee
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[Report] Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap Ⅱ : with Five-Year Strategies to Achieve a 1.5°C-compliant Pathway Net-Zero Roadmap for Korean Steel Industry (Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap) (hereinafter referred to as “K-NZS 1”), a report that NEXT group published in the summer of 2023, offered the most ambitious carbon reduction pathway ever proposed in South Korea, but the roadmap had limitations. It failed to align with the global goal of curbing the average temperature rise to within 1.5℃. This year, 2024, NEXT group publishes this report, Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap II (“K-NZS 2”), to revisit the analysis conducted by K-NZS 1 and present recommendations compatible with a 1.5℃ pathway. The new recommendations incorporate internal and external environmental changes including (i) the rapid growth of demand for green steel and (ii) the potential delays in supply of green hydrogen worldwide. 2024-10-15 / Rachel Eun Ko
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[Report] NEXT Electricity Outlook 2024 - Part 1: Coal Phase-Out Watcher This report aims to provide compelling evidence and guidance for policymakers and stakeholders interested in the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). This is the first comprehensive analysis in South Korea, incorporating the latest power system modeling and quantitative data up to 2024, and offering a long-term outlook through 2050. Reflecting global trends towards carbon neutrality and shifts in environmental policies, this report proposes strategies for the power generation mix and identifies essential policies. 2024-07-19 / Yonghyun Song, Jiwoo Lee
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[Issue Brief] The role of Special Bill on Offshore Wind Power in expanding offshore wind deployment Offshore wind is a key means to decarbonize the transition sector, but the absence of a state-led system has resulted in numerous inefficiencies. Key factors influencing offshore wind penetration in Korea include 1) permitting and local acceptance, 2) power grid, 3) offshore wind market, 4) ports and installation vessels, and 5) the supply chain. While the current special legislation addresses permitting and zoning issues, improvements can be made in the areas of grid and offshore wind markets. Besides passing the special bill, the government should reduce uncertainty by releasing a comprehensive Master Plan for Onshore and Offshore Transmission Systems, a strategy for building an efficient national grid, and an Offshore Wind Auction Roadmap detailing the location, frequency, and scale of auctions over the coming years. 2024-05-17 / Eunsung Kim, Yunsik Chung
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[Issue Brief] The Gangnam Flood: Where Are We? Over the past decade in Korea, flooding due to heavy rainfall has been responsible for the majority of natural disaster damages. With climate change expected to intensify these rainfall events, there is a pressing need to implement measures to reduce flood damage. Specifically, the Gangnam Station area in Seoul experienced severe flooding in 2022, yet effective policy and physical measures to combat such flooding remain insufficient. 2024-05-16 / Kanghyun Song, Minhee Lee
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[Report] 2050 Climate neutrality roadmap for Korea K-map scenario 2.0: Repowering Korea This study is based on the "2050 Climate Neutrality Roadmap for Korea, K-Map Scenario: Implementing an ambitious decarbonization pathway for the benefit of future generations and the Korean economy" released in February 2022, which examines the potential for additional GHG reductions in five emission sectors: transition, industry, transportation, buildings and agriculture, and analyzes the necessary measures. The results of the analysis for each sector are presented in the order of updating the GHG reduction roadmap, analyzing the potential for additional reductions, and proposing necessary policies, with the aim of analyzing the sectors that need rapid transition to achieve carbon neutrality and strengthening national competitiveness. We hope this report will serve as a useful reference for policy makers and researchers working to achieve carbon neutrality. 2024-04-07 / Institute for Green Transformation, Green Energy Strategy Institute, NEXT group, Agora Energiewende
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[Issue Brief] Impending U.S. Carbon Tariffs The Foreign Pollution Fee (FPF) Act is one of the U.S.' multiple attempts to implement trade regulations. The goal is to restrict imports to no more than 50% greater carbon intensity than the U.S. Korean-manufactured steel flat products are expected to be 65 to 69 percent more carbon-intensive than their U.S. counterparts, making it challenging for Korean steelmakers to avoid tariffs as the difference exceeds 50%. To secure the steel export market, a quick promotion of low-carbon technologies, such as using coke oven gas in blast furnaces to replace cokes partially and increasing inputs of scraps and direct reduced iron in basic oxygen furnaces, is necessary in the short and medium term. The government should ease the industry burden by supporting the procurement of scrap and DRI, the materials essential in the short and medium-term decarbonization process, and decarbonizing the national grid. 2024-01-23 / Rachel Eun Ko
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[Opinion] An economy where the optimal choice is net-zero A column by Rachel Eun Goh on the need for fundamental structural change to make decarbonization an inevitable choice rather than a temporary one. 2024-01-15 / Rachel Eun Goh
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[Engagement] NEXT group joins a Coalition of Asian Energy Think Tanks, Uniting for Asia’s Renewable Energy Future On December 13, 2023, NEXT group joined a coalition of Asian Energy Think Tanks and became a signatory of a joint statement “Uniting for Asia’s Renewable Energy Future,” which was announced at a media briefing just before the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) Summit held on the same day in Tokyo, Japan. NEXT group is committed to sharing its expertise in data analysis, policy research and experience in working with various stakeholders, including decision-makers, to strengthen the decarbonization efforts of the Southeast Asian neighbors and collectively raise voice for policy pressure. 2023-12-14 / NEXT Group
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[Issue Brief] Is the port ready? The need for a port development plan for the timely deployment of offshore wind According to the 10th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, Korea is targeting a 6.3% share of wind power in total electricity generation and a cumulative installed capacity of 14.3 GW of offshore wind power in 2030, but there are no ports in Korea that can be used as marshalling ports for offshore wind farms, and even if the construction of the currently planned ports proceeds smoothly, there will be a serious bottleneck from 2026, and only 7.8 GW of offshore wind power can be installed at the end of 2030. Our simulations show that 7.3 GW of additional offshore wind capacity could be installed by 2030 (totaling 15.1 GW), assuming that the currently planned ports are built as soon as possible, and new ports are constructed. This issue brief recommends that the government should reorganize the Basic Plan for Ports and the Basic Plan for the Construction of New Ports to meet the carbon neutrality target and proceed with the construction of installed ports based on this, which will proactively resolve bottlenecks and contribute to achieving the national offshore wind deployment target. 2023-10-30 / Yunsik Chung, Eunsung Kim
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[Working Paper] Probabilistic Prequalification Scheme of a Distribution System Operator for Supporting Market Participation of Multiple Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators This paper addresses the need for distribution system operators to effectively manage uncertainties related to distributed energy resources. We propose a probabilistic approach using Polynomial Chaos Expansion, allowing the operator to balance economic efficiency with system reliability by setting a pre-determined acceptable violation probability. Moreover, we introduce a framework for integrating the capability of distributed energy resources aggregators to manage uncertainties through the uncertainty band commodity. Our methodology fairly distributes responsibility for constraint violations among various stakeholders by employing two allocation strategies: one based on Shapley Value and another based on sensitivity factors. The proposed system significantly improves the overall decision-making process by considering both economic and reliability factors within the prequalification process of distribution system operator. 2023-10-26 / Chang Min Jeong, Hee Seung Moon, Seung Wan Kim
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[Report] Improving Korean Green Public Procurement to Drive Demand for Low-carbon Steel and Cement This study diagnoses the current status of Korea's green public procurement system and its limitations in terms of climate change mitigation, and proposes improvement measures to create low-carbon demand for high-emitting building materials such as cement and steel. It is estimated that about 30% reduction in the industrial sector can be achieved through the improvement measures proposed in this study, which is higher than the revised industrial sector NDC of 2023, which is 11.4% reduction from 2018. As a policy task to achieve the national carbon neutral scenario, it is proposed to 1) mandate the submission of Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) results in public procurement bids to verify the embedded carbon content of products entering the public procurement market; 2) reorganize the national LCI DB and develop product-specific LCI DBs in line with international standards for accurate carbon footprint calculation; and 3) revise relevant Korean Industrial Standards (KS) for the decarbonization of cement and steel products with maximum allowable carbon emission levels. 2023-10-16 / Jung Hyun Han
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[Working Paper] P2P Credit Auction vs. Net Metering: Benefit Analysis for Prosumers under Incremental Block Rate Electricity Tariff Our study conducts a quantitative analysis how the introducing of peer-to-peer (P2P) trading affects the benefits of each stakeholder, offering a guide for policy adoption. Firstly, we have devised a P2P trading mechanism based on credit auctions tailored for residential, while considering the application of the increasing block rate tariff often applied to residential customers in the real world, and have assessed its benefits in comparison to the current net metering scheme. Multiple case studies were undertaken, encompassing various scenarios, including the level of purchase price of utility for uncleared auction offers, the proportion of prosumers participating in the trading network, and the level of capacity of PV. Our study shows that the P2P trading does not always yield positive benefits for prosumers compared to the prior policy. Nevertheless, we identify specific conditions under which the P2P trading can stimulate residential PV installations. 2023-10-11 / Jung-Sung Park, Seung Wan Kim, Ji Woo Lee
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[Webinar] The Road to Net-zero Steel in Korea and Japan The steel sector is known to be the largest emitter, accounting for about 7% of the world's annual GHG emissions, and in South Korea, it accounts for a staggering 15% of total national GHG emissions, and in Japan, about 13%. This webinar aims to share the findings of the steel sector decarbonization strategies of two major steel producers and Asian neighbors, South Korea and Japan, and compare their similarities and differences in terms of implementation strategies, technological alternatives, and policy instruments that can support them. We will also share the views of a global civil society organization on the role and position of these two countries in the global steel decarbonization. 2023-09-28 / NEXT group

Latest Research

[Issue Brief] Solving curtailment issues, starting with data transparency 2024-10-22 / Yunsik Chung This issue brief aims to clarify the concept of curtailment for non-power system professionals by analyzing the various causes of curtailment in Korea and introducing examples of curtailment policies and data disclosure from other countries. Based on these analyses, we recommend that transparent data disclosure and clear curtailment policies be established as prerequisites for mitigating curtailment and promoting renewable energy.

[Issue Brief] It's time for a paradigm shift: the real typhoon damage starts in the fall 2024-10-21 / Kanghyun Song, Minhee Lee In the last decade, typhoons have been the second most destructive type of natural disaster. We need to focus on typhoons, particularly those that occur during the fall, as their intensity is anticipated to rise due to climate change.

[Report] Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap Ⅱ : with Five-Year Strategies to Achieve a 1.5°C-compliant Pathway 2024-10-15 / Rachel Eun Ko Net-Zero Roadmap for Korean Steel Industry (Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap) (hereinafter referred to as “K-NZS 1”), a report that NEXT group published in the summer of 2023, offered the most ambitious carbon reduction pathway ever proposed in South Korea, but the roadmap had limitations. It failed to align with the global goal of curbing the average temperature rise to within 1.5℃. This year, 2024, NEXT group publishes this report, Korea Net-Zero Steel Roadmap II (“K-NZS 2”), to revisit the analysis conducted by K-NZS 1 and present recommendations compatible with a 1.5℃ pathway. The new recommendations incorporate internal and external environmental changes including (i) the rapid growth of demand for green steel and (ii) the potential delays in supply of green hydrogen worldwide.

[Report] NEXT Electricity Outlook 2024 - Part 1: Coal Phase-Out Watcher 2024-07-19 / Yonghyun Song, Jiwoo Lee This report aims to provide compelling evidence and guidance for policymakers and stakeholders interested in the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). This is the first comprehensive analysis in South Korea, incorporating the latest power system modeling and quantitative data up to 2024, and offering a long-term outlook through 2050. Reflecting global trends towards carbon neutrality and shifts in environmental policies, this report proposes strategies for the power generation mix and identifies essential policies.

[Issue Brief] The role of Special Bill on Offshore Wind Power in expanding offshore wind deployment 2024-05-17 / Eunsung Kim, Yunsik Chung Offshore wind is a key means to decarbonize the transition sector, but the absence of a state-led system has resulted in numerous inefficiencies. Key factors influencing offshore wind penetration in Korea include 1) permitting and local acceptance, 2) power grid, 3) offshore wind market, 4) ports and installation vessels, and 5) the supply chain. While the current special legislation addresses permitting and zoning issues, improvements can be made in the areas of grid and offshore wind markets. Besides passing the special bill, the government should reduce uncertainty by releasing a comprehensive Master Plan for Onshore and Offshore Transmission Systems, a strategy for building an efficient national grid, and an Offshore Wind Auction Roadmap detailing the location, frequency, and scale of auctions over the coming years.

[Issue Brief] The Gangnam Flood: Where Are We? 2024-05-16 / Kanghyun Song, Minhee Lee Over the past decade in Korea, flooding due to heavy rainfall has been responsible for the majority of natural disaster damages. With climate change expected to intensify these rainfall events, there is a pressing need to implement measures to reduce flood damage. Specifically, the Gangnam Station area in Seoul experienced severe flooding in 2022, yet effective policy and physical measures to combat such flooding remain insufficient.

[Report] 2050 Climate neutrality roadmap for Korea K-map scenario 2.0: Repowering Korea 2024-04-07 / Institute for Green Transformation, Green Energy Strategy Institute, NEXT group, Agora Energiewende This study is based on the "2050 Climate Neutrality Roadmap for Korea, K-Map Scenario: Implementing an ambitious decarbonization pathway for the benefit of future generations and the Korean economy" released in February 2022, which examines the potential for additional GHG reductions in five emission sectors: transition, industry, transportation, buildings and agriculture, and analyzes the necessary measures. The results of the analysis for each sector are presented in the order of updating the GHG reduction roadmap, analyzing the potential for additional reductions, and proposing necessary policies, with the aim of analyzing the sectors that need rapid transition to achieve carbon neutrality and strengthening national competitiveness. We hope this report will serve as a useful reference for policy makers and researchers working to achieve carbon neutrality.

[Policy Paper] Policy Proposal for the 2024 General Election to Realize Net-Zero Korea 2024-02-19 / NEXT group NEXT group has prepared a policy paper for climate and energy-related agenda for the 22nd General Election. We emphasized the need for the government to actively implement a carbon-neutral policy, as not only to address the climate crisis but also the economic crisis that may worsen due to the strengthening international regulations. We hope it will provide a useful reference for the policy-makers in creating Korea's climate and energy agenda.

[Issue Brief] Impending U.S. Carbon Tariffs 2024-01-23 / Rachel Eun Ko The Foreign Pollution Fee (FPF) Act is one of the U.S.' multiple attempts to implement trade regulations. The goal is to restrict imports to no more than 50% greater carbon intensity than the U.S. Korean-manufactured steel flat products are expected to be 65 to 69 percent more carbon-intensive than their U.S. counterparts, making it challenging for Korean steelmakers to avoid tariffs as the difference exceeds 50%. To secure the steel export market, a quick promotion of low-carbon technologies, such as using coke oven gas in blast furnaces to replace cokes partially and increasing inputs of scraps and direct reduced iron in basic oxygen furnaces, is necessary in the short and medium term. The government should ease the industry burden by supporting the procurement of scrap and DRI, the materials essential in the short and medium-term decarbonization process, and decarbonizing the national grid.

[Opinion] An economy where the optimal choice is net-zero 2024-01-15 / Rachel Eun Goh A column by Rachel Eun Goh on the need for fundamental structural change to make decarbonization an inevitable choice rather than a temporary one.

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